Asian Dream - China, Japan and India

Many experts, politicians, scholars believe 21st century is going to be “Asian Century”. To make this a reality 3 countries should come and work together – Soaring Dragon, Rising Elephant and Assertive Godzilla i.e. China, India and Japan.

Below are the reasons I would like to mention –

1. Nominal GDP wise top 3 Asian countries are China, Japan and India. In terms of PPP, the order is China, India and Japan. For a rising Asia, these 3 countries should join hands.

2. In terms of Forex Reserve, the Top 3 Asian economies are China (>$3 Trillion), Japan (> $1 Trillion) and India (> $500 Billion). Surprisingly these 3 nations are also top 5 in the World.

3. China, Japan and India also has 6 (JPX, SSE, SEHK, SZSE, BSE, NSE) out of World’s Top 12 biggest Stock exchanges in terms of Market capitalization. Imagine the enormous potential if we create something like Euronext in Asia.

4. China, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan are always featured in top 10 nation Fortune Global 2000 companies’ country-wise list. We can learn from one another’s business model and grow together.

5. To drive an economy we need the steel production. Based on steel production, the top 3 countries in the World are – China, India and Japan.

6. Automobile is driving economies in 21st century. The top 3 Asian auto makers are – China, Japan and India. They are also top 5 globally. These 3 countries should collaborate to create next gen Electric vehicles and SUVs.

7. Driving economy needs energy and in modern era of Globalization we need more renewable energy. China is already a global leader in renewable and India and Japan is catching up after signing the Paris Climate Deal.

8. China currently has home to World’s 2nd largest number of Tech Unicorns. India is distant 3rd and a lot of Chinese VC firms (Alibaba, Tencent Holdings, ByteDance, Didi Chuxing etc) are investing in India. In modern era these tech unicorns are creating so many jobs.

9. In modern World, we need a good rapid transport system (MRT). China is a leader with 40+ cities with Metro followed by distant 2nd India and 3rd Japan. This sector too needs collaboration with more research and technology transfer.

10. Japan invented the high speed bullet train (Shinkansen) and later China has become World leader in Bullet train. India just building one in assistance of Japan and still long way to go.

11. China, Japan and India are among 6 nations with multiple satellite launch capability, self developed cryogenic engine, operates extra-terrestrial probes (Mars Mission, Moon Mission), Global or Regional Navigation system and recoverable satellite capability (RLV). If these 3 country collaborate with each other we can create something big like NASA or ESA in Asia.

12. This point based on the complex nuclear capabilities of 3 nations. China is home to 47 nuclear reactors followed by Japan (33) and India (23). India became 6th nation with 20+ nuclear reactors despite being banned with nuclear trade for 34 years (1974-2008) followed by a nuclear test outside NSG membership.

13. This point is very much different slightly based on technological capabilities of 3 nations. Japan in 2nd World war became 1st Asian nation to successfully built Aircraft Carrier “Shinano”. After Japan, China commissioned their 1st indigenous aircraft carrier “Shandong” last year and India is building “INS Vikrant” which will be commissioned in 2 years time. This suggests these 3 countries have enormous capability but should co-operate with each other.

14. In Quantum Computing, Supercomputing and Artificial Intelligence China and Japan is racing towards the top of the World. China is home to 226 TOP500 supercomputers where as Japan commissioned the most powerful supercomputer “Fugaku” this year. India is slightly behind in this sector but currently investing in supercomputing and training the IT employees to Data Science and Machine Learning.

Conclusion: We 3 nations have some differences with Imperial Japan having some bad histories with China and India-China has some kind of border disputes. But being neighbor and also for Asian century these 3 alongside South Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN should work together, trade together. Look at NAFTA, their trilateral trade back in 2015 was 1.03 trillion USD.

Now coming to the “Chindia” scenario as coined by Mr. Jairam Ramesh, China’s economic liberalization happened in 1978 under leadership of Deng Xiaoping. For India this happened 13 years later after collapse of close ally Soviet Union in 1991 under leadership of PM Narasimha Rao (when Manmohan Singh was Finance Minister). China has chosen the manufacturing path which slowly made them export driven manufacturing juggernaut. For case of India after fixing Y2K bug and with highest English speaking population outside US has become “Back office of the World”. Our path is different, political system is different, demographics is different but goal is same. China being an early starter has almost alleviated the poverty and moving towards a developed nation. India is slowly catching up. With 1/3rd of the World population, “The Dragon” and “The Elephant” should dance together.

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